According to the first assessment of global supply and demand for cereals in 2021-2022, IGC experts predict a record production of cereals in the world at the level of 2,287 million tons.
The analysts noted that grain production will grow by 62 million tons or 3% in the next season, including new highs for wheat and corn.
The increase in consumption of food, feed and industrial uses is expected to increase total consumption by 54 million tonnes from 2020-2021 to 2,286 million tonnes. World reserves are projected to remain unchanged at 609 million tonnes at the end of 2021-2022. Taking into account the reduction in the supply of wheat and barley, world trade is reduced by 6 million tons per year to 410 million tons.
IGC experts raised the forecast of world wheat production in 2021-2022 by 15.4 million tons – up to 790 million tons, which is 2% more than in the previous season (774 million tons). At the same time, analysts have lowered the forecast for world wheat exports in 2021-2022 by 6 million tons to 184 million tons.
According to the data, the world ending stocks of wheat are projected at 304.3 million tons, which is 12 million tons higher than 2020-2021 (292.3 million tons).
Recall that the current situation on the grain market was a real shock for Ukrainian farmers, because many of them kept wheat until spring, hoping for a further rise in grain prices. But instead of this, a situation that is not typical for the market occurs – wheat is actively declining, while prices for other grains remain stable.