FAO analysts predict an increase in world wheat production in 2021-2022 to a record 780 million tons against 774 million tons in the current season.
The main growth in the gross grain harvest is expected in the EU – by 9% per year, to 137 million tons against the background of the expansion of the sown area under the crop by 5% and the expected improvement in its yield. Wheat harvest in the UK may exceed 14 million tonnes also due to expanded planted areas and increased yields.
Wheat production in Russia this year may decrease by 7 million tons amid dry weather observed at the beginning of the growing season of the crop. In turn, in Ukraine, the gross grain harvest may slightly increase due to the generally favorable weather in the winter.
The US wheat harvest is projected to be close to last year’s 50 million tonnes, as adverse weather conditions offset the expected expansion of the crop area. A slight decrease in the grain harvest (up to 34 million tons) is expected this year in Canada against the background of a decrease in its yield.
Growth in wheat harvest in 2021-2022 is projected in India and Pakistan due to favorable weather and government support for grain production. In China, the gross yield of this crop may remain at about last year’s level.
We also note that FAO analysts raised the forecast of the global gross wheat harvest in 2020-2021 by 7.5 million tons – to the above-mentioned 774 million tons (+ 1.9% yoy) against the background of higher than previously estimated production indicators grain in the EU, Russia, Kazakhstan and Australia.